On December 11, Boeing Japan held a presentation on the commercial aviation market in Japan and Northeast Asia. Mr. Darren Hulst, Vice President of Marketing, Commercial Airplanes, took the stage.
First, looking at overall trends, the global economy has doubled over the past 25 years, and passenger traffic has tripled. While passenger traffic has tripled, fleet size (number of aircraft) has only doubled from 2000 levels, but this has been attributed to higher occupancy rates, longer range performance, and technological innovation that has allowed airlines to utilize their fleets more efficiently. By 2030, global air traffic is expected to expand by approximately 50% from 2018 levels.
The Japanese market is currently experiencing a 4.3-fold increase in the number of passengers visiting Japan over the past 25 years, a four-fold increase in visitor spending, and an increase in the number of international flights to Japan that is more than double what it was then. The number of international flights has more than doubled since that time. “This is a growth trajectory that will drive the achievement of more than 60 million inbound passengers per year by the end of the 2030s,” he said. In particular, Tokyo has maintained its position as the largest market for trans-Pacific connections for more than a decade, with the number of connecting passengers increasing 25% over the past decade. “It has been the number one market for trans-Pacific connecting passengers for a decade now,” he said, indicating the importance of the Japanese market to the global aviation industry.
Japan’s inbound growth has also been “largely supported by an increase in the number of flights from other Asian markets, especially single-aisle aircraft,” Hulst said. The fleet of single-aisle aircraft operated by Japanese carriers has tripled over the past 20 years, and average flight distances have increased by more than 25%. At the same time, performance improvements in the widebody market have changed the fleet mix dramatically, with 747s, which accounted for 30% of the widebody market 20 years ago, disappearing, and now twin-engine mid-size and small aircraft account for almost the entire fleet. This has increased the average range of wide-body aircraft by more than 30%. In light of these changes, Hulst analyzed that “airlines have achieved market expansion with more efficient and longer range aircraft.
For the next 20 years, GDP in the Northeast Asia region is expected to grow at a little over 1% per year, and passenger volume is expected to increase nearly 2.5% per year, with passenger demand growing at a rate about 2.5 times faster than GDP. The fastest growth will be in round-trip travel between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, while the long-haul market and intra-regional domestic routes will continue to grow, although they are mature markets. In order to meet this growing aviation demand, “more than 1,500 new aircraft will be needed by 2044,” he explained. The breakdown is roughly 50-50 split between single-aisle aircraft (51%) and wide-body aircraft (42% passenger and 6% cargo), with 770 single-aisle aircraft, 640 wide-body passenger aircraft, and 85 cargo aircraft (including upgraded passenger aircraft). As a result, the Northeast Asia region is expected to require an additional 134,000 human resources (pilots, maintenance engineering histories, flight attendants, etc.) over the next 20 years.
By product, Japanese airlines currently operate Boeing wide-body aircraft (787s, 777s, etc.) on more than 90% of long-haul routes, and Hulst credits the success of the popular 787 Dreamliner product with over 2,200 orders worldwide. One in four of the world’s 787 flights is to or from Japan, and Japanese carriers operate 10% of the 787s currently in service. ANA operates the largest number of 787s in the world. It is one of only three airlines in the world to operate all three variants (787-8, 787-9, and 787-10).
In terms of orders and deliveries in 2025, the 787 will surpass competing aircraft such as the Airbus A350-900/330neo. Although production has not been able to catch up due to factors such as component delays, and only a quarter of the 2025 deliveries have been completed, the company will continue to improve the 787 family in terms of aeronautical functionality, crew productivity, and cabin comfort, and will “strive to ensure that the 787 remains the best aircraft in the world.
He also noted that the 777, which celebrated its 30th anniversary in Japan this year with ANA and JAL, “continues to play an important role in the growth of Japanese commercial aviation as it is the aircraft that carries the largest number of passengers originating from Northeast Asia. The 777X, the next-generation successor to the 777, will play a key role in the future. The 777-9, the largest twin-engine, wide-body aircraft in the history of aviation, is capable of carrying up to 426 passengers per flight on long-haul routes, and offers both operational efficiency and passenger comfort. With additional orders, the 777-9 is expected to be a driving force in the airline’s future.
Among single-aisle aircraft, the “737MAX” is expected to be the most active single-aisle family (737-8, 737-10, etc.), with superior fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and operating costs, and a longer average following distance than its predecessor, while continuing the 737NG’s lineage. The 737 NG is a single aisle aircraft that has been operated for the past 20 years. （It is also suitable for the Japanese market (where the number of single-aisle aircraft has tripled over the past 20 years), and three Japanese airlines (ANA, Skymark, and JAL) have already ordered more than 70 units, with the first aircraft to be delivered by the end of 2026.
Mr. Hulst emphasized that Japan’s geographic location will continue to play an important role in Pacific route connections. He predicted that the long-term market expansion in the Northeast Asia region will continue by boosting passenger flow to, from, and via Japan, while capturing demand from emerging markets.
© Source travel watch