The Replacement Bus Service Wasn’t “Not Operated”—It Was “Unfeasible from the Start” First, let’s review the situation. Why was the Uchibo Line replacement bus service unable to operate officially for two weeks? The reason was that “they couldn’t secure as many as 160 buses.” The Uchibo Line sees consistently high ridership across all categories—commuting, school commutes, and tourism—with as many as 8,000 passengers traveling per hour during peak times. If we were to replace the train service with buses—roughly 50 passengers per bus, not counting auxiliary seats—8,000 ÷ 50 equals “160 buses per hour.” However, according to reports, only about 30 buses were actually secured. After all, under the current circumstances, bus companies within Chiba Prefecture itself are not in a position to provide multiple replacement buses. While Kominato Railway Bus (Ichihara City) and Nitto Kotsu Bus (Kisarazu City)—two major players on the Boso Peninsula—are already operating other substitute buses, school buses, and the “Kisarazu Station–Greater Tokyo Area Express Bus (via the Aqua Line),” which also serves as an alternative to the Uchibo Line, these three companies—including Keisei Bus, the largest in the prefecture—are in a situation where they must also focus their efforts on increasing the number of buses via the Aqua Line, which, in a sense, also serves as an alternative to the Uchibo Line. This means they will have to secure buses from other regions or outside the prefecture, but due to a shortage of drivers, each company is in a situation where they can only provide one or two buses at best. Even if they had been able to launch substitute bus service between Anegasaki Station and Kisarazu Station with about 30 buses, that would have covered less than one-fifth of the actual capacity, and queues would likely have formed at each station with no clear indication of when passengers could board. Under such circumstances, chaos on-site would have been inevitable. Even if they had been able to mobilize about 160 buses, there are no roundabouts or waiting areas at any of the stations capable of handling that many vehicles. Furthermore, with traffic congestion causing travel times on national highways to be several times longer than usual, having 160 buses constantly on the road would have increased delays and further exacerbated the chaos in the area. Taking these local circumstances into account, it is believed that JR East began operating the replacement buses at a time when fewer buses would be required—namely, after the restoration of service between Kisarazu Station and Nagaura Station shortened the suspended section. Based on my experience observing numerous “disaster relief bus services” over the years, I had felt that, regarding the Uchibō Line, “the plan for relief buses between Anegasaki Station and Kisarazu Station would be impossible to carry out as proposed. They would likely wait for a temporary restoration of service between Nagaura Station and Kisarazu Station, which would allow them to scale back the scope of operations.”
© Source travel watch