Weathernews announced the typhoon trend for 2022.
The Pacific High is expected to move northward more than usual, and typhoons in July and August are likely to move from Okinawa to mainland China and the Korean Peninsula. The possibility of typhoons approaching the Kanto region is also expected to increase at this time, prompting caution regarding typhoon paths and the effects of rain and wind.
The La Niña event is likely to continue throughout the season, and a negative Indian Ocean dipole mode event will cause higher sea surface temperatures in the southeastern Indian Ocean. These effects will shift convective activity in the tropical northwestern Pacific westward of normal and promote the formation of cumulonimbus clouds. Since typhoons are generated by the gathering of these cumulonimbus clouds, the location of this year’s typhoons is expected to be more westerly than normal. In this case, typhoons tend to spend less time passing through areas with high sea surface temperatures, more often take a path toward the continent, and have a shorter lifespan from their onset to their extinction. There is also a possibility that the time between the onset of the typhoon and its approach to Japan will be shorter.
Looking at the monthly typhoon track trends, typhoons are expected to move more frequently from Okinawa to mainland China and the Korean Peninsula from July to August. However, in August, the Pacific High is expected to weaken, and typhoons may take complicated paths and move more slowly as they approach Japan. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the path of the typhoon and the effects of rain and wind.
The number of typhoons this season is expected to be around 23, including two in April. During the season, sea water temperatures are likely to rise westward of normal due to the continuation of the La Niña phenomenon and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode phenomenon. As a result, convective activity in the South China Sea and around the Philippines will be slightly higher than normal. On the other hand, convective activity will be inactive over the East Sea of the Philippines, where convective activity is active in a normal year. As a result, overall convective activity, mainly in the typhoon outbreak area, will be somewhat inactive compared to normal, and the number of outbreaks will be lower than the 25.1 seen in a normal year.
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