The incoming data tell us that a recession is unfolding. Once that recession is recognized by the business community, the Fed will be forced to stop its tightening.
Because it does not survey small businesses, BLS “adds” jobs that it attributes to that segment. Major Indexes Universal Value AdvisorsAs noted, there was a lot of volatility for a rather benign week/week result. MBA US Purchase Index SA Universal Value AdvisorsFurthermore, mortgage applications to refinance an existing mortgage have fallen off a cliff. MBA US Refinances % Total Applications Universal Value AdvisorsRest of the WorldNeedless to say, Europe and China have major issues of their own. If the Fed never gets to its stated “terminal” rate, markets, which have already priced-in such rates, will have to adjust to a lower one.